Since last week’s presidential debate, three polls have been taken in North Carolina, which is a key battleground. In all three, former President Donald Trump has led Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris.
All of them, though, are still within the mistake range. And experts from across the country who are keeping an eye on the state expect a close race through the last 49 days, which end on November 5.
Trump already had a 1.7% lead in the Quantus Polls and News report that came out on Friday. Over the weekend, he got a 48.9%-45.9% lead from AmericanGreatness/TIPP Insights and a 48.4%-46% lead from The Trafalgar Group. Trending Politics, American Greatness, and Trafalgar Group were the sponsors, in that order.
Without the Quantus data, RealClear Polling says that the state is still statistically tied at Trump plus 0.4%. Though most polls show a range from almost 3% to just under 4%, there is no margin of error taken into account. By this measure, both candidates are only about 3% away from saying they are the leader of the state.
At 47.5% to 47.1%, Project 538 also puts Trump ahead by 0.4%.
North Carolina is one of seven states that are seen as very important to this election. Together, these seven states hold 93 electoral college votes. Pennsylvania has 19, North Carolina and Georgia each have 16, Michigan has 15, Arizona has 11, Wisconsin has 10, and Nevada has 6.
Harris was in the state last Thursday, her running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, on Tuesday, Trump’s running mate, U.S. Sen. J.D. Vance of Ohio, on Wednesday, and Trump is scheduled to visit Wilmington on Saturday, even though it has been raining all week.
Last week, on Wednesday and Thursday, Trafalgar Group polled 1,094 probable voters. The error rate was 2.9%. American Greatness polled 973 potential voters on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. The error rate was 3.2%.
Since Lyndon B. Johnson won North Carolina in 1964, only Jimmy Carter (1976) and Barack Obama (2008) have been Democrats to win the state. Four years later, neither happened again.
Trump has won the state twice, once over Hillary Clinton in 2016 and again over Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in 2020. The gaps between them were small: 49.8% vs. 46.2% for Clinton and 49.9% vs. 48.6% for Biden.
In 2016, American Greatness was formed with the goal of being “the leading voice of the next generation of American Conservatism.” The American Greatness/TIPP poll was done by TechnoMetrica.
The first Trafalgar polls and surveys were done in 2016. According to news stories, it is based in Atlanta and releases the methods it uses for its polls. It also says that its “approach to polling” is “markedly different from most of the industry.”
RealClear Politics named it the best polling company for the 2016 presidential race, which is a huge accomplishment for a rookie of the year.
Quantus Insights bought Quantus Polls and News after the poll came out. It uses the new substack journalism approach. It predicts elections and analyzes and comments on economic and political issues.