(The Town Square) – Polls for Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate for president, show that her romance with voters in North Carolina is coming to an end.
When former President Donald Trump came to Charlotte on Friday to speak to the National Fraternal Order of Police, the most current polls did not even slightly show that he was behind. The last time was a study by Morning Consult that was paid for by Bloomberg and done the weekend after the Democratic National Convention.
He is going up against Harris in Philadelphia on Tuesday. This is the only discussion that has been set up so far. With less than 60 days to go, Election Day is now officially less than 60 days away.
Cases in New York, Florida, Georgia, and Washington have brought in money for Trump’s campaign. One of them led to a conviction, but the sentencing date for that case was pushed back to after Election Day, and the other three have fallen.
The Florida documents case was thrown out, the Georgia interference case is being slowed down by claims of wrongdoing, and the Washington case is pretty much on life support because of an immunity ruling.
Harris didn’t become a candidate until 107 days before November 5. She did this to try to change her image from being an incumbent of the Biden government to a challenger. Along with Democrats’ policies that have failed statistically, like inflation going up more than twice as fast since she became vice president and prices going up about 20% across the board, she has tried to thread a needle.
That’s not all. She said Trump’s border wall was a waste of public money, and in the first few days of his presidency, Joe Biden issued a lot of executive orders about immigration.
Still, even with the margin of error, North Carolina is a statistical dead heat. Trump has slightly led all four polls since Harris was ahead 49% to 47% in a Bloomberg poll of 700 registered voters taken August 23–26. The mistake range was +/- 4%.
Around the same time, Fox News asked 999 people who were registered to vote. Trump had a 50% to 49% lead, with a 3% error range.
Two polls of 775 potential voters, one by The Hill on August 25–28 and one by Emerson College on August 29–31, both had a +/– 3.5% margin of error. In both polls, Trump was ahead 49% to 48%.
This week, an East Carolina University poll with a +/-3% margin of error asked 920 potential voters to rate Trump’s popularity. The results showed that Trump was ahead 48% to 47%.
Last month, Harris led not only Bloomberg but also two other polls. The New York Times and Siena College polled 655 potential voters from August 9th to 14th, and there was no way to tell if her lead of 49% to 47% was accurate. A study done by High Point University from August 19–21 of 1,053 registered voters had a margin of error of +/– 4%. Harris was ahead 46%–45%.
North Carolina has been won by a Republican in every presidential election since 1964, when Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won the state. The only exceptions were Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. Four years later, neither of them did it again.