Two polls posted Monday by Quinnipiac University show that former President Trump still has a slight lead over Vice President Harris in Georgia. However, the race in North Carolina is still too close to call.
In Georgia, Trump has 4 percentage points more support than Harris, with 49% vs. 45% of likely votes. Cornel West, an independent, and Claudia De la Cruz, a third-party candidate, each get 1%.
Harris, on the other hand, has 3 percentage points more support than Trump among potential voters in North Carolina, with 49% vs. 46%. Jill Stein, the Green Party candidate, has 1% support. The 3-point lead for Harris is still within the error margin, so the score is not statistically important.
The race is too close to call in both of the possible two-way races. In Georgia, Harris wins one point, cutting Trump’s lead to three points. Everyone in North Carolina gets one point, so Harris still has a three-point lead.
According to a news release from Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy, North Carolina and Georgia are two of the most likely states to elect the president. Each has 32 Electoral votes, so both could be a clear favorite.
There is about the same amount of party support for Trump in both states: 93% of Republicans in Georgia and 94% of Republicans in North Carolina back him.
There is unanimous support for Harris among Democrats in North Carolina (99%), but there is clear support for Trump among independents in the state (47% to Harris’s 42%).
In Georgia, 94 percent of Democrats back Harris. However, independents aren’t sure who to vote for—46 percent back each candidate.
Since these are the first Quinnipiac polls from the 2024 election cycle to ask likely voters in Georgia and North Carolina, they can’t be compared to earlier studies.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ’s polling average in Georgia shows that Trump and Harris are tied with 48.4 percent of the vote. In North Carolina, the average of the polls shows that Trump is ahead by 0.4 percentage points, with 48.4 percent of the vote to Harris’s 48 percent.
When asked about these polls, Steven Cheung, a spokesman for the Trump campaign, told The Hill that election expert Nate Silver’s most recent prediction said that Trump has a 64.4% chance of winning the election, a 76% chance of winning North Carolina, and a 69% chance of winning Georgia.
The polls by Quinnipiac were done from September 4–8, 2024, and they asked 940 likely voters in North Carolina and 969 likely voters in Georgia. Both polls have a 3.2 percentage point margin of error.