People who get help from government programs are one group that is especially vulnerable to the effects of inflation. In order to keep up with inflation, Social Security recipients, especially those who are eligible for disabled benefits, get an extra payment every year. The SSA figures out how much monthly payments will go up every year by using the cost-of-living adjustment (COLA).
is put in place every year by the SSA to help this business deal with price increases. Even though the 2025 COLA hasn’t been made public yet, early predictions are beginning to show up. Inflation has also been a steady problem for the US government and people since the start. But because of actions taken by the Federal Reserve, price increases have been slowly going down. This will also have an effect on the final cost of living change.
The latest projections for the Social Security Disability Benefit checks increase
After going up by 5.9% in 2022, the COLA hit an all-time high of 8.7% in 2023. But the change in 2024 was only 3.2%, and experts say that if inflation slows down even more in 2024, it could drop a lot more in 2025. A new report from the Census Bureau shows that the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) went up 2.9% in July compared to the same month the year before. Analysts can make a guess with this number, even though the official COLA increase won’t come out from the SSA until October. Their most recent report said that the COLA would be about 2.57 percent, which is 0.06% less than their previous month’s estimate of 2.6 percent.
The head of Boston College’s Center for Retirement Research, Alicia Munnell, was more positive, saying that she thought the change would be between 2.6% and 2.9%. The vice president for Retirement and Income Solutions at Principal Financial Group, Sri Reddy, gave an even more optimistic estimate. He said that the 2025 COLA could be anywhere from 2.75 to 32.5 percent. Beginning in July, if the COLA is at least equal to the 2.9% inflation rate, Social Security seniors would get an extra $54 each month. It would be worth $44 a month for survivors and an extra $45 a month for people who get Social Security Disability Income (SSDI).
How does the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculate the COLA?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the official COLA estimate every October. It is based on the CPI-W for the third quarter, which ran from July to September. The numbers from August and September are not used to figure out how much of a change will be made in 2025. So far, predictions show that inflation will keep going down. The Federal Reserve is also getting ready to lower interest rates in the fourth quarter, which runs from October to December.
It’s not good news for people who get help from social services. This means that the prices of basic goods are starting to level off, but it also means that their income will grow at the slowest rate in the last three years. Many retirees, widows, and disabled people may be wondering how their Social Security disability check will go up. That’s why we wanted to tell you about what will happen with these programs’ monthly benefits. Here are two possible outcomes: one with a 3.2% increase in the COLA and the other with a 2.6% rise.
| Retirement benefits | Social Security checks | 2.6% COLA increase | 3.2% COLA increase |
| On average | $1,900 | $1,949 | $1,961 |
| Age 62 | $2,710 | $2,780 | $2,797 |
| Age 67 | $3,822 | $3,921 | $3,944 |
| Age 70 | $4,873 | $5,000 | $5,029 |
| Survivor benefits | Social Security checks | 2.6% COLA increase | 3.2% COLA increase |
| On average | $1,505 | $1,544 | $1,553 |
| Individual | $1,773 | $1,819 | $1,830 |
| 2 Children | $3,653 | $3,748 | $3,770 |
| Disability benefits | Social Security checks | 2.6% COLA increase | 3.2% COLA increase |
| On average | $1,537 | $1,577 | $1,586 |
| Blind recipients | $2,590 | $2,657 | $2,673 |
| Maximum payment | $3,822 | $3,921 | $3,944 |